Trading dynamics in a post-forward guidance era

Following the Federal Reserve's recent decision to remove forward guidance, our team used proprietary MarketAxess data to examine US credit market behavior around Fed announcements. Comparing the more volatile 2022–2023 hiking cycle with the better-telegraphed post-hiking period from 2024–26.

The findings suggest that while a return to less predictable Fed meetings could increase market friction, electronic liquidity and dealer competition have remained remarkably resilient.